What were the chances of these moves missing?

Question

I'm in a Max Lair battle.
Landorus uses Rock Slide and misses 3/4 of our team.
I use Ice Fang and miss.
What are the chances of this happening?

To clarify I mean this specific sequence of events happening.

Answer 1

Rock Slide has 90% accuracy while Ice Fang has 95% accuracy, so we're going to have to calculate these separately. Let's start with the Rock Slides.
I had a formula here earlier for calculating the rock slides, but I'm pretty sure that formula was wrong, so I just pulled out a binomial distribution calculator for it. 1/10 chance to miss and 4 total attempts gives you a 0.36% chance of exactly 3 misses, or a 0.37% chance of it missing at least 3 times.

Next, let's factor in the Ice Fang miss, which is a 5% chance. This one's really easy, we just multiply it to our Rock Slides (remember that 100% = 1.00 for mathematical purposes):

0.0036 * 0.05 = 0.00018 = 0.018% = 1/5555.56 chance

Comments

I understood like none of that-
Thank you!!!

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Rock Slide is 90% accurate.

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@Amethyst shoot you're right. Gotta redo this now

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And the formula I was originally using was way off, too. That's what I get for trying to reinvent the wheel, I guess.

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Thanks for fixing it, and thanks for pointing that out, Amethyst, that detail slipped my mind in the moment.