What are the chances of finding 2 shiny Pokemon in a row in tera raids?

Question

I randomly caught a shiny tera steel heracross in a raid and then immediately after I caught a shiny tera fairy revavroom. I joined the 2 raids online and do not have a shiny charm

Comments

The odds for finding a shiny in a Tera Raid are 1/4103.05. Did you join these raids online or from your game?

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Forgot to mention earlier, they were both online and I don't have a shiny charm

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The shiny charm has no effect on raids whatsoever. Did you join a raid from someone specific who hosted (by inputting a code), or just random online raids?

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Just random

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Ah.
The thing with online raids is that you can host the same one multiple times, which can be used to host shiny raids. Also, finding a shiny in an online raid means that the host found the shiny in their game. So either you found a raid someone was hosting multiple times, or you found a raid which just happened to have a shiny. However, since you joined random raids, I don't know what the chances of finding a shiny in an online raid would be. I imagine it'd be quite low.

Answer 1

On paper, the chance of finding two completely random shiny Tera raids in a row is (1/4103.05)^2 = 0.0000005939% or 400/6.7 billion, or a little over 1/16,750,000.

However if you're talking about joining online raids, the odds are not able to be calculated. This is because people can host shiny raids over and over again without losing the raid, and as such, your raid list could be full of other people's repeated raids that will always be shiny.

Hope I could help!