How long will getting a shiny take?

Question

I’ve been hunting for Shiny Regice in Brilliant Diamond, but I still haven’t gotten it, even after 141 resets. How much longer will this take?

Comments

you know right that shiny has a 1/4096 chance encounter? so just be patient when shiny hunting.

---

Dang your previous luck must be THAT GOOD to be expecting a shiny around 141 resets. Shiny odds are 1/4096 in Brilliant Diamond. That doesn't mean it will take exactly that, you could get it extremely quickly, or you could go above the shiny odds. It might not come as quick as you expect, shiny hunting takes patience. Keep your eyes peeled for the shiny and good luck.

---

Hi, so, I’m closing this because it’s low quality. It’s random. It’s impossible for us to know. The odds are 1/4096, so it might take literal years for you to find one.  Either way, please read this thread to help you out:

https://pokemondb.net/pokebase/403360/what-are-all-the-ways-obtain-shiny-pokemon-main-series-games?show=403360#q403360

---

I've been hunting shiny regice in sword off and on since crown tundra came out and I still don't have it

---

@Smoothie I think your comment answers the question. You might as well reopen and answer it so that other people who don't know probability can read your answer.

---

I reopened the post under sumwuns comment. If anyone wants to explain probability and the odds, feel free

---

Literally could take forever

Or you can get it on your next reset

Thaaat's RNG

Answer 1

Unfortunately, it's impossible for anyone to determine when you'll get a shiny without rng abuse or exploits.

The odds of finding a shiny range from anywhere from 1/100 to 1/8192. I'd recommend reading this for more information.

To explain probability, it's best to use dice/a die as an example. When you roll a die, you have a 1/6 chance to land on the number you want, in this case, let's say you want a 3. You can roll it 6 times, since there's 6 sides, but it's still possible for you to not roll a 3 in those 6 rolls. You could roll it 20 times and still not roll a 3. Likewise, you could roll it and land a 3 on your first try.

In Brilliant Diamond, the shiny odds are 1/4096.

Now, imagine a die/dice with 4096 sides. Finding a shiny is like wanting one particular number between 1 and 4096. You could roll the die forever and never find the number you want (the shiny). You could also also roll it and get the number you want on the first try.

It's all up to luck.

I hope this helps!

Comments

I've gotten a full odds shiny Scyther near the Grand Tree Arena before battling Noble Kleavor...o.o

---

Chance of having >=1 shiny via full odds shiny hunting (1 in 4096) at
1 encounter = 0.02%
100 encounters = 2.4%
500 encounters = 11.5%
1000 encounters = 21.7%
2500 encounters = 45.7%
4096 encounters = 63.2%
10,000 encounters = 91.3%
50,000 encounters = 99.9%
Calculate using the binomial distribution.

Worth adding that BD/SP shiny odds are not exactly 1/4096: https://twitter.com/SciresM/status/1461396140734124033

---

Welllllll, you know it's not impossible to not know when a shiny will appear. In at least lgpe and Arceus, shinies are seeded, so they will appear at a specific advance. If you have a hacked switch you can check that advance

Also other games have guaranteed shinies on different "frames" but I don't know enough about that

---

I’ll edit to clarify without exploits such as rng abuse :P

---

excuse me but rng manip is valid and the speedrunning community will have u disbarred if u further refer to it as "abuse". RNGesus exists but for our sakes and for the sake of WRs (and shiny hunting apparently)

/jk