[B2W2] What will be my Catch Rate in this scenario?

Question

Virizion appeared!

Go, Flaaffy!

Virizion used Retaliate!

Flaaffy Fainted!

Due to Flaaffy's Static, Virizion is Paralyzed!

Go, Haxorus!

If I keep False Swiping until Virizion's HP is 1 and I threw an Ultra Ball to catch Virizion, what would be my Catch Rate?

Comments

Why is this tagged shiny?

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Most likely because they are going for shiny Virizion, based on the asker's previous Virizion question.

Answer 1

At level 45, paralyzed and at 1 HP using Ultra Ball:

You have a 8.114% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 9 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 36 balls.

Source

Comments

Shuckles. I better stock on Ultra Balls then :P


Also, do catch rate rises per ball? Just wondering.

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No, it's like how each coin flip has a 1/2 chance of being heads. But you can flip 2 coins to raise the chance of getting at least 1 heads.

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Nope, just what sumwun said^^

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Each heads increases the chance?

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No, that's not how probability works. Because every single time you get a tails, it is less likely to get a tails in a row. For example, the probability of getting tails 4 times in a row is (1/2) to the power of four. That is equal to 1/16, which means the probability of getting a heads once is 1 - 1/16. That is equal to 15/16, which are huge odds. Does that make sense Blaziken. Please google basic probability, I thought that was common knowledge.

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Why do you think it's common knowledge? I had to take several different math elective classes to learn probability.

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This is basic probability, as in the probability taught in elementary school. Or so I think

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They don't teach ya that stuff till 8th grade