What were the chances of me failing to catch Moltres?

Question

How likely is it that I got Moltres down to the lowest HP possible without killing it, then used 20 Great Balls and 15 Ultra Balls and didn't catch it?

Comments

I'm assuming this is LeafGreen based on your previous questions?

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yeah pretty much all my questions are lg until I start a new game.

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Moltres has a catch rate of 3%. It's not going to be an easy birb to catch.

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lol.    .

Answer 1

Great Balls

You have a 1.234% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 56 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 242 balls.

Ultra Balls

You have a 2.106% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 33 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 141 balls.

source
1 - ((1 - 1.234%)^20 * (1 - 2.106%)^15) = 0.433 (or 43.3%)
You should probably try putting the Moltres to sleep.

Comments

That's some math right there