Do SwSh Raid Dens have normal or boosted shiny odds?

Question

Also, if all 4 players have the shiny charm, are the odds 4/4000?

Sorry if this is dumb I'm just kinda jsksjsjsj

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Comments

i was accidently about to re-ask this x_x

Answer 1

...the standard chance is 1/4096 (there are no enhancement of Shiny chances from Raids).

Source

It would be logical to assume that Shiny Charm only works for you. If another person has a Shiny Charm, it likely will not affect your chances. I have no definite source, but I'll try to find something to back that up.

Hope I helped!

Comments

That's not entirely true. The raid dens shininess is set when the beam appears, and the game know when the next shiny will be. It appears once every 16,000 raid dens but because of the every four encounters does a reset it whatever you can manipulate that. Here's a video explaining it. https://youtu.be/_2wARPni11o also shiny charm only works for host

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You don’t need to bash the other post to put yours forward, even if yours I may be correct. Just draw attention to your own and hope that sound minded people say “hey, ya know, that’s kinda better than the other answer”. :P

Answer 2

The "odds" of finding a random shiny in a Max Raid Den is 1/4096. However these odds can be affected by multiple variables if you're shiny hunting.

If you are doing the date skip method, but skipping one day at a time, then the odds are ~1/16,384. This is because the game is coded so that every four days, a new Pokemon has a chance of being shiny. That chance is 1/4096 but because there are four Pokemon in four days the odds are ~ 1/16,384

If you are doing the date skip method, and skipping four days at a time, the odds are ~1/4096. This is because like I said above, the game only calculated a new shiny value every four days. Therefore the odds are ~1/4096.

It also should be noted that if you go into a Max Raid Den, and then say lose the raid, then the Pokemon you fight is the exact same Pokemon with the same stats, moves, ability EVs and IVs.

In addition, if you go to 18:55 in the video, Austin John talks about how the first three Pokemon, in the four day cycle will always be the same. This is of course talking about repeating the same four day cycle, but that is why you skip four days when shiny hunting

Source

Comments

1/16000 seems a bit... off. Youre saying every day, one den has a 1/16000 chance to get a shiny?

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Kind of. As soon as the beam appears, the game confirms the day that that beam will have a shiny pokemon in it. So if you skip the day forward one day at a time you kind of have a 1/16000 chance of getting it. The video does a great job of explaining it, so I'd recommend watching it

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Yes, i know all of that, but that's literally 4 times the average odds then. Per each individual den, shouldnt it just be 4000?

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No everything I'm saying is just for one raid den, and one that was made with a wishing piece, so each individual den has a 1/16000 chance

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Thats 4x the odds

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Indeed

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Is there any other source backing up that every raid den encounter has a 1/16000 chance of being shiny?

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https://youtu.be/GTBSyPBvYnQ
https://youtu.be/UNciNEVahws
Literally just look up how to get shiny raid Pokemon and you'll get everyone saying the same thing

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Videos arent a reputable source, if youre going to send 30 minute videos as a source, quote the timestamp. Everything i see online says nothing of that.

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Not only that but thats for the dumb raid den rng abuse, not random den encounters

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Well that's how you hunt them. If you want the random raid den encounter shiny chance it's 1/16000

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Why did you downvote? Even if you didn't want how to shiny hunt it my answer is still correct.

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Because i asked for a second source or a timestamp and youre refusing

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First video timestamp is 0:40 and if you don't think that Austin John Plays is reliable then that's not my problem he is the most reliable youtuber for anything nintendo. Every thing else does not give the exact odds but explains how to get the shiny. And no, I know this looks like rng abuse, but it's not rng. Every raid den beam has at least one shiny every 16000 days. The video in the answer if you watch the first two minutes it will completely explain it

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I didn’t see the full video but if you at least look at it, you’ll see that the way the game appears to be coded has the shiny rate higher than the standard shiny rate. You cannot say a game will act differently than it is coded. :P

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Im kind of having trouble figuring out who's answer you believe more. Which do you think is more correct, staka?

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If the game is coded so that it picks days, Gmax is right. Although I am too lazy to test or figure this out on my own, the fact that there is a shiny hunting method based upon finding that 1/16000 strongly suggests that it is true, but doesn’t prove it 100%. It is unlikely exploit would work if the game wasn’t coded this way. :P

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Thank you Staka

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From what I’ve gathered, 1/16,384 isn’t quite correct, but isn’t quite false, either. I’m not a dataminer, so I’m relying off of what others have said (such as in the videos you’ve linked), and it sounds to me like the game generates one shiny value every 4 days that it uses for each Pokémon during that time. If you use the time skipping method, but only skip one day at a time, then you’re only seeing Pokémon with a new shiny chance once every four days, effectively quadrupling (or quartering?) your odds. This is why some sources will tell you that you need to skip ahead four days for each encounter. This four day system that the game uses only really affects time skipping, though, since it still uses the standard 1/4096 odds for each four-day block. You could also go between two nearby dens, use a wishing piece, check if its shiny, reset after seeing it, then go to the other den and repeat. This will give you the standard 1/4096 odds, since each use of a wishing piece will generate a new seed.

So in summary:
Time skipping one day at a time: 1/16,384
Time skipping four days at a time: 1/4096
Spamming wishing pieces on dens: 1/4096

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Thank you krlw, i can always count on you for math related things like these. Thank you

I wish i could upvote your comment

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Krlw that is completely correct. I would add that the Pokemon in the raid den will be the same exact Pokemon if you leave and re-enter the den. Plz tell me how I can edit my answer

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Ok I dramatically changed my answer I hope it makes more sense now

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I removed my downvote-- the answer is *much* better and much more clear. I'm still a little salty so I won't BA, but here's an upvote instead. Thank you

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Your welcome! I just want to get the right information out!