What are the odds of finding a square shiny antique sinistea. Then what are the odds of catching it in a beast ball?

Question

I wanna know what I’m in for square shiny hunting this.

Comments

> There was a beast ball event before 1/15. https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/List_of_other_event_distributions_in_Generation_VIII
commented 8 hours ago by sumwun

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Yeah, but that was only one extra. Not 20

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I have something called Nintendo online. It allows me to get more Beast Balls

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Oh. I do too, but I didn't know you could get that many.

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Yes. I trade. A lot

Answer 1

Assuming I did the math correctly (I probably didn't), under optimal conditions (500+ KOs, Shiny Charm, target asleep at 1 HP, active Pokemon at or above target's level, and a complete Pokedex), you have approximately a 1/116000 chance of encountering a square shiny authentic Sinistea, and approximately a 21% chance of catching it in a Beast Ball.

Comments

What equations are you using for the chance of catching it?

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Don’t think they used the right one for a beast ball.

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'target asleep at 1 HP' so probably he did it right for the beast ball

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Ah I didn’t realize that 1HP Asleep gives that much of a catch rate increase.