In RSE and ORAS, what is the probability that Wally's Ralts first appears shiny AND is defeated by Norman's Zigzagoon?

Question

I'm just not a math guy.

I would like it given to me, if possible, as a fraction of one in (about x, where x is a whole number) since I'm sure it won't come out evenly.

Sorry I'm a snob about answer specifics. I'm just curious and would appreciate if someone could let me know. It'd be easier for me to remember it this way if I wanted to one day spew out this random fact to my Pokemon friends. :)

Comments

Can the ralts even be killed?

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Yes. I learned that last month and it's rarer than the probability of a random shiny to get a Ralts with the correct conditions. https://pokemondb.net/pokebase/312537/how-was-the-ralts-in-the-catching-tutorial-knocked-out?show=312537#q312537

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The two probabilities are independent, right? If yes, then isn't the answer just 1/(8192 * 8574)?

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if it's that simple then i'm just an idiot

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Yeah sumwun is right

Answer 1

As sumwun said, the probability of the Ralts being shiny is the regular 1/8192, and the probability of Wally KOing it is 1/8574. Since these are both independent chances, the probability is the product of the two chances, or 1/70,238,208, which is rarer than finding two back-to-back shinies.

Comments

One in over 70 million. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew.