Dexnav shiny chances?

Question

What are the actual numbers for acquiring a shiny through the dexnav chain method? I have scoured the internet and the closest thing that I have found was this.

The chance of encountering a Shiny Pokémon also increases, estimated
to reach 0.5% per encounter after 40 chained encounters, and remain at
that rate as long as the chain continues. There is thus a 50% chance
of encountering a Shiny Pokémon in the first (roughly) 130 chained
encounters. A chain is broken when the player leaves the area
(including entering a building), encounters a wild Pokémon that isn't
hidden, or moves too quickly and scares away a hidden Pokémon. Hidden
Pokémon can be encountered for a chain either with or without the
Search function. Getting the message "The Pokémon couldn't be found.
Try looking in a different area!" when using the Search function does
not break the chain.

I am confident that I am doing the chain correctly but have been unsuccessful after making several chains that go well over 200. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

Answer 1

Those appear to be the actual numbers. Also, it did say
> There is thus a 50% chance of encountering a Shiny Pokémon in the first (roughly) 130 chained encounters.

"Roughly" means that the 50% mark lies around that point, mathematically. It could be anywhere as low as 120, or as high as 160. The fact that you still haven't found a Shiny is just a roll of the dice – no matter how favourable your odds are, there is still a chance of failure. Just keep chaining, and you'll get that Shiny. I commend you on having the patience to chain 200+ Pokémon, I was chaining fora Bold HA Tangela and only found two in 60, and neither was Bold. So I gave up and decided to breed for it.

Comments

Thanks for the reassurance. I did finally manage to capture the ralts after a few more attempts on a chain of 32.

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Im at 123 chained for an absol and still no luck; i thought the chances got better the more you chained and didnt realise it capps at 0.5% :( that sucks! not to mention ive encountered it 600 times and still no luck

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If the highest number that would reach 50% is 160 then that would mean they did over 40 encounters with 50% odds making it mathematically impossible to not encounter at least one (example: flip a coin 40 times without getting heads, it isnt possible) besides its been proven that chaining doesnt increase shiny odds it only ups the potential (ivs) level egg move chance and hidden ability chance