How many great balls should I get to catch snorlax?

Question

i need enough great balls to have at least a 70% chance of catching him I dont know those numbers so if someone could do that math for me that would be great

Comments

Use Ultra balls if you can. Those have higher chance of catching than great balls.

Answer 1

So,you need the number of Great balls neede to catch a Snorlax in Fire Red.

Catch chance=(Cath rate * Ball Bonus * Bonus Stats)/255

Now Snorlax's Catch rate is 25
Great ball gives bonus of 1.5
Ill AssumeSituations for NO status condition,Paralyzed and Asleep.
Also let Its HP be Dropped much(Say it has 10%HP)

With no Status condition

(25*1.5*1)/255=14.7
The average number of Great balls you need is 1/14.7=6.8(That is around 7 Great Balls)

When Paralyzed

(25*1.5*1.5)/255=22
The average number of Great Balls you need is 1/22=4.5(That is 4-5)

When Asleep

(25*1.5*2)/255=75
The avrage number of Great Balls you need it 1/75=1.33(That is 1 or two Balls)

So from this calculation when Snorlax is Asleep and Hp dropped down you can Catch is within 2Great Balls.

Hope I Helped

Comments

First, the question and answers on this site (not the comments) use something called markdown formatting, where "*" usually means italics. You need to type "\*" to tell markdown that you want to literally show "*" instead of italic text.
Second, your formula is wrong. According to your formula, HP does not affect catch chance, and a Pokemon with 255 catch rate can never escape a Poke ball. The correct formula is catch chance = catch rate * ball bonus * status bonus * (3 - 2 * current HP / max HP) / 765. https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Catch_rate writes the formula differently, but it should be equivalent.

Answer 2

Because Snorlax has Leftovers and knows Rest, it can be tricky to keep it at a good HP percentage. If you just start throwing balls at full HP, it’ll take about 20 Great Balls on average to catch. Alternatively, a sleeping Snorlax in red health only takes about 4 Great Balls on average. Because RNG and averages can be deceiving, I would recommend stocking up 50% more Great Balls than the average, so 30 for the worst case scenario, 6 for the best.
If your team is under-leveled, Snorlax can be very difficult, and you’ll probably have to use Great Balls at higher HP ranges, so having 25-30 would be better in this case. But if you have a powerful Pokémon with False Swipe, you should be able to get by with just 10-15.

Answer 3

1/2 of max HP, no status

You have a 10.661% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 7 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 27 balls.

1/2 of max HP, paralyzed

You have a 14.34% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 5 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 20 balls.

1/2 of max HP, asleep

You have a 19.752% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 4 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 14 balls.

1 HP, no status

You have a 14.34% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 5 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 20 balls.

1 HP, paralyzed

You have a 23.416% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 3 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 12 balls.

1 HP, asleep

You have a 33.695% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 2 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 8 balls.

source
The calculator unfortunately doesn't tell me how many you need for 70% catch chance, so I decided to figure it out. When you flip a coin once, you have a 1/2 chance of heads and a 1/2 chance of tails. When you flip it twice, the possible results are TT, TH, HT, and HH. So there's a 1/4 chance of getting 2 tails in a row and a 3/4 chance of getting at least one heads.
With 3 flips, it's TTT, TTH, THT, THH, HTT, HTH, HHT, and HHH, with a 1/8 chance of 3 tails in a row and 7/8 chance of getting at least one heads.
With n flips, there's a (1/2)^n chance of getting n tails in a row, and a 1 - (1/2)^n chance of getting at least one heads. Let's say you want at least a 70% chance of getting at least one heads.
1 - (1/2)^n = 70% = 7/10
1 - (1/2)^n - 1 = 7/10 - 1
-(1/2)^n = -3/10
(1/2)^n = 3/10
log(1/2, (1/2)^n) = log(1/2, 3/10)
n = log(1/2, 3/10) coins, which is close to 1.7 and rounds up to 2 coins because you can't flip 0.7 coins.
If the chance of heads is p (which can be 1/2 or something else), the chance of tails is 1 - p. There's a (1 - p)^n chance of getting n tails in a row, and a 1 - (1 - p)^n chance of getting at least one heads. This is the chance of getting at least one heads.
1 - (1 - p)^n = 70% = 7/10
1 - (1 - p)^n - 1 = 7/10 - 1
-(1 - p)^n = -3/10
(1 - p)^n = 3/10
log(1 - p, (1 - p)^n) = log(1 - p, 3/10)
n = log(1 - p, 3/10)
I'll use n = ceiling(log(1 - p, 3/10)) because you can't flip a fraction of a coin or throw a fraction of a great ball.
(these aren't real math proofs, I just tried and failed to write an explanation that makes sense)
Now we can take the p values from earlier and put them into the formula.
1/2 of max HP, no status: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.10661, 3/10)) = 11 great balls
1/2 of max HP, paralyzed: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.1434, 3/10)) = 8 great balls
1/2 of max HP, asleep: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.19752, 3/10)) = 6 great balls
1 HP, no status: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.1434, 3/10)) = 8 great balls
1 HP, paralyzed: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.23416, 3/10)) = 5 great balls
1 HP, asleep: n = ceiling(log(1 - 0.33695, 3/10)) = 3 great balls