What is the chance of this happening?

Question

At first I thought Rayquaza had a 100% catch rate in ORAS, but it was only 45. Anyway, I was battling rayquaza and having a tough time, I was down to my last Pokemon, Groudon, and it got it to red health, no status condition, and I threw my first pokeball of the encounter(a dusk ball, my reasoning was that my clock was set to what should have been night, but I didn't anticipate Zinnia knocking me out, which I think changes the time by 12 hours, anyway long story short, it would've had a catch rate of 1) and I caught it in what appeared to be a critical capture, which I had never, ever gotten before! In any game! What are the chances of this happening?

Comments

If it helps determine the probabity, I could include all pokemon I've caught on the games I have that have critical capture.

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How many Pokémon have you caught in your Pokédex.  That determines the odds of the Critical Capture occurring.

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I'll see in a bit.

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195(filler)

Answer 1

I was going to walk you through the calculations, but while calculating the chance to catch Rayquaza with a Dusk Ball, it gave me this.

You have a 2.551% chance of a critical capture, which then has a 71.306% chance of succeeding. Failing that, you have a 25.852% chance of succeeding with a normal capture. All in all, this amounts to a 27.012% chance per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 3 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 10 balls.

So, the odds are all in there. With your critical capture, there was a 2.551% chance of it occurring and then that had a 71.306% chance of capturing it.
Then, the odds of both of these occurring is about 1.82%.

Source for calculation: https://www.dragonflycave.com/calculators/gen-vi-vii-catch-rate

Comments

Wow nice

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Thanks so much J, can I call you J, I can't really do that superscript thing that well.

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No problem!  And everyone calls me J, so you can too.

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I will call yiu Jay Tee Emm?
PLS?
jk uwu

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That's great lol.