What are the chances of this happening?

Question

First it is gen 7 Ubers tour finals, middle of a battle with e killer on my side (last Pokemon) and pixie-Arceus on the other.
Then it goes for Will-O-Wisp and missed while I went for Swords Dance after it. Then I used Extreme Speed and of course it doesn't kill. THEN they missed Will-O-Wisp again! I KO them next. Out comes his Ho-Oh with 40% health. I finish him with a crit. First I told my opponent congrats for winning because I freakin got over hax luck. What are the chances of this happening!?

Comments

What does SD stand for?

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Not a complete answer since this doesn't include the crit-hit rate, but the accuracy of Will-o-Wisp is 85. The chance for Will-o-Wisp to miss is 15%, so if we multiply 0.15*0.15, the chance of Will-o-Wisp missing twice would be something like 0.0225, or 2.25? (Are either of them correct)

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SD is Swords Dance.

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were there any other stat changes?

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no, no other stat changes except Swords dance.

Answer 1

Accuracy of Will-O-Wisp: 85

Probablility of Will-O-Wisp missing once: 15%
Probability of Will-O-Wisp missing twice: 2.25% (15/100 * 15/100) (consider it as 2.25/100 or 0.0225)

Critical Hit Chance: 1/24 (4.16%) (consider it as 4.16/100 or 0.0416?)

Total Probability = 0.0225 * 0.0416 = 0.000936

In other words, 0.0936% of this event happening

Hope this helps :)

Comments

Lmao I should go to lottery. :|
Thanks!

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Isn't crit chance 1/16?

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- Slash deals damage and has an increased critical hit ratio (1⁄8 instead of 1⁄24).

No

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Oh ok sorry

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The Critical Hit chance was 1/16 before Gen 7.

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Oh that's why I felt it wrong. Thanks!

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Oh I didn't know! Thanks for telling!