PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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What's the chance that smashing a rock in Granite Cave (in Emerald version) will reveal a wild Pokemon (versus the chance of nothing happening)?

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I'm not completely satisfied with the answer. I'm bumping it to the top of the "all activity" list.
I went ahead and hid the answer so it will appear on the unanswered list again
Thanks. Can you do that to my other unresolved questions?
Finally got a Nosepass is Granite Cave, it takes longer than it should lol
"Rock Smash breaks certain rocks to clear a path. Occasionally, wild Pokémon may be encountered."
Bulbapedia says occasionally, so it is probably either random or unknown how often Pokemon come out of rocks.

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>Unlike using Sweet Scent in a patch of grass, there is no way to ensure an encounter while using Rock Smash, and the latter seems to give encounters at a rate of approximately 10% of the time.

Source: Smogon

Note that it says approximately meaning it's not completely a 10% chance.

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I guess this is the best we can get for now.
Thanks! This is really the best I could find... I'm fact ages ago I asked myself the same question (but didn't put it on DB) and couldn't find a single thing.