What is the possibility of finding a HA shiny Pokemon in the Kiloude City Friend Safari or horde battles?

Question

I am curious about the chances and what you have to do to find one besides chaining because I am horrible in chaining. I have found 2 wild shiny Pokemon but I don't think they have hidden abilities so if you can help me, that would be great.

Shiny Pokemon I have found in Pokemon X and Y

Floatzel
Murkrow

I need help and thank you!

No this is a different question that has not been answered yet.

Comments

No, it isn't 5/8192. For starters the NORMAL chance is 1/4096 not 1/8192
For a horde  battle, It would be 1 - (4095/4096) ^ 5
Why? (4095/4096)^5 is the chance that ALL 5 pokemon aren't shinies. 1 is the total thingmajiggy.
The values you get by punching that into a calculator with 5/4096 is small, but nevertheless is wrong.

---

May I ask Kawd, where are you getting that info?

---

Basic maths.
It's like how people first got 5/4096
They just multiplied it by 5 because there were 5 pokemon. Except at least to me this calculation makes more sense

---

I think you and the person who's friend safari your in have to be online. I know cause I saw one guy, both of them were online, and he got an Overgrow Pansage. Don't know about the horde battle

---

I don't really know what the actual *rate* of finding a HA *or* a Shiny here is, but I have an idea. The rate of HA's appearing apparently gets higher if the person whose Safari you're in is online at the same time as you are, which can be a problem if you don't personally know the person. I don't think the rate is low enough that HA's would be too big of a problem to find. The rate of Shinies appearing here are apparently greater than in normal gameplay, but I doubt that it's raised enough that looking for Shinies doesn't change from being extremely monotonous. I'm not too sure about Horde Encounters, but I can assure you that looking for HA's this way will be harder, as you can't really tell which one has the HA.

As a side note, when I was looking for HA Quagsire before I knew about the other person having to be online, I caught about 30 of them before I caught a Shiny, which was probably just luck (I wasn't even looking for a Shiny).

Even if all FS Pokémon have two 31-IV stats, trying to find a Shiny, let alone one with a Hidden Ability, for competitive use isn't worth it, as it probably won't have the Nature you're looking for, nor the good IVs for the right stats. If you do happen to find one with perfect stats and abilities, you should probably go buy a lottery ticket. You will also look like a hacker.

Anyways, that's all I can say. Sorry if I couldn't give you an exact number.

Answer 1

First, I'm going to establish a few things, which I will refer back to later on.

1. Your friend has to have beaten the game in order for HA Pokémon to start appearing in his/her friend safari.
2. Each Pokémon at the Safari has an equal chance of having any of its possible abilities, which means if there's a Pokémon with only one main ability and a hidden ability, the chance it has of having the hidden ability is 50%, and the chance of having the HA is 33% for Pokémon with two main abilities.
3. Thanks to an experiment performed by MeloettaMelody, we can assume that the chances of a Pokémon having its hidden ability in a horde battle is approximately 4.8%.
4. The probability of finding a shiny Pokémon without the Shiny Charm is 1/4096. With the charm it is 1/1365.3 Source

Ok, so now that we know these numbers, we can do some math to find out the probability of finding a shiny HA Pokémon in any circumstance.

---

Method 1: The Friend Safari

The Friend Safari is the most reliable of the two methods, and you will find out why shortly.

Pokémon with 1 other ability
Without Charm: 1/2 1/4096 = 1/8192 or 0.0122%
With Charm: 1/2 1/1365.3 = 1/2730.6 or 0.0366%

Pokémon with 2 other abilities
Without Charm: 1/3 1/4096 = 1/12288 or 0.0081%
With Charm: 1/3 1/1365.3 = 1/4095.9 or 0.0244%

---

Method 2: Horde Battling

If you're considering doing horde battles for shiny HA Pokémon, I have one thing to say: don't waste your time. Here's why:

Chances of Encountering HA Shiny Pokémon in Horde Battles
Without Charm: 48/1000 1/4096 = 1/85333, which means 1/17067 or 0.0059% when facing 5
With Charm: 48/1000 1/1365.3 = 1/28444, which means 1/5689 or 0.0176% when facing 5

---

So unfortunately, the chance of finding shiny HA Pokémon is miniscule. The most efficient method to use would be to obtain the Shiny Charm and then go to a Friend Safari where the available Pokémon have only one main ability, but even then, only about one in three thousand Pokémon will be shiny with the HA. Good luck, and I hope you are able to find a Shiny HA Pokémon, even if the odds are against you.

---

P.S. I will be updating this answer as new information comes in regarding shiny HA Pokémon in the Friend Safari (as I am aware that if your friend is online the chances of HAs, and possibly shinies, increases).

Comments

That's not correct about what you said at the beggining actually. The chance of finding ha in the friend safari is proved not to be the same as finding normal ability pokemon. Someone said this in a previous answer that was turned into a comment.

Sorry about being annoying :P

---

There actually is some methods tat´s makes it easy to find shinies in FS. And there´s actually many sources that says it´s easier to find shiny pokemon in FS if the player is online