Question

What are the odds of 2 Hurricane Confuses, and 4 confusions in a row?

Comments

There is a 30% chance of Hurricane confusing the opposing Pokémon

Source: https://gamerant.com/pokemon-everything-about-confusion-status-condition/

Moves that do not have a 100% chance of confusing the opposing Pokémon can range from 10-30%
Here's a list of those moves from the source:

Hurricane: 30%
A damage-dealing special move
Secret Power: 30%
Can only potentially cause Confusion while on Rocky Terrain (only possible in Generation 3 games)
Dizzy Punch: 20%
A damage-dealing physical move
Rock Climb: 20%
A damage-dealing physical move
Strange Steam: 20%
A damage-dealing special move
Water Pulse: 20%
A damage-dealing special move
Confusion: 10%
A damage-dealing special move
Psybeam: 10%
A damage-dealing special move
Signal Beam: 10%
A damage-dealing physical move

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what does 4 confusions mean?

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I think 2 confusions in a row is 9%, and 4 is 0.81%, if my math is right.

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This doesn’t answer the question.

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The question asks for the chance of something happening multiple times in a row, which this answer doesn't mention at all.

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I think he means by when the Pokemon hit themselves in confusion.

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I interpreted it as asking the chances of Hurricane inflicting confusion. My calcs were wrong though, I forgot to account for Hurricane’s 70% accuracy.

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This question does not provide enough information.

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I think the question is fine; it doesn’t say anything about the target hitting themselves after being confused, it only mentions being afflicted with Confusion.

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My bad. Kind of a vague question. I’ll do better next time

Answer 1

I'm going to assume by "4 confusions" you mean you hit yourself with confusion 4 times in a row.

The chance of hitting yourself in confusion in Gen VI+ is 1/3, while the chance of Hurricane giving your opponent confusion is 30%. But Hurricane also only has a 70% chance to hit except in rain, and also has a 50% chance to hit in harsh sunlight.

In a normal condition, (7/10)^2 = 49% chance of Hurricane twice in a row. In sunlight, (5/10)^2 = 25% chance to hit twice in a row.

Here are the full calculations:

During rain: So (3÷10)^2×(1÷3)^4 = 0.1111% or 1/900.

During normal conditions: (49÷100)×(3÷10)^2×(1÷3)^4 = 0.05444% or about 1/1837.

During sunny conditions: (1÷4)×(3÷10)^2×(1÷3)^4 = 0.02777% or 1/3600

Hope I could help and thanks KRLW!

Comments

Starting in Gen VI, confusion has a 33% chance of making a Pokemon damage itself.

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(0.3)^2 is 0.09 or 9/100.
(0.5)^4 is 0.0625 or 1/16.
9/100 x 1/16 is 9/1600 OR 0.005625.

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Thanks Amethyst

Are you saying my math is wrong or just explaining it?

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Hurricane's 30% chance to confuse only applies if it hits, so if rain wasn't up, we'd have to account for its accuracy, too:

Chance of Hurricane hitting twice in a row: (7/10)^2 = 49/100
On top of your 1/900 chance of everything else happening (which I double-checked):
49/100 * 1/900 = about 1/1837 if there was no rain

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Thanks, edited