What's the exact mathematical working on the flinch rate for double iron bash boosted by serene grace?

Question

just wanna know how the probabilities stack up

Answer 1

Serene Grace doubles the flinch chance from 30% to 60%.
To calculate the chance that at least one hit flinches, we can calculate the chance that neither of the hit flinches then subtract it from 100%
The chance of not flinching for one hit is 40%, so the chance of neither flinching is 40% x 40% = 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16 or 16%
Therefore, the chance of flinching is 100% - 16% = 84%

Comments

If you add a Kings Rock to that what is the chance of flinching then?

---

excuse me if my math is wrong but I think it goes like this, even if KR doesn't boost DIB
(1 hit of DIB × SG not flinching) × (KR × SG not flinching)
0.4 × 0.8 = 0.32
0.32 × 0.32 = 0.1024 (both hits not flinching with SG)
1 - 0.1024 = 0.8976 = 89.76% (both hits flinching with SG), final flinch rate

---

stabmons is gonna go crazy with this one

Answer 2

Serene Grace does boost each chance to flinch up to 60% per hit. This was a problem in Balanced Hackmon not to long ago that got Zacian-Crowned quick banned from the format.

Statistically, it is a 60% chance to flinch twice, adding up to an average 84% chance to flinch the target.

Hope this helps.

Comments

It's a trivial calculation, but the question does ask for the "exact mathematical working".

---

Ah, damn.