What are the chances of a Liepard breaks out of a critical capture first turn thrown Quick Ball?

Question

This question speaks for itself. I am currently trying to complete the Pokédex in Pokémon Shield, and I have Purrloin registered, but not Liepard. So I went down to North Lake Miloch to catch the wandering Liepard there. However, when I threw my Quick Ball at it, it shook to signify it was a critical capture, but then the Liepard broke out on the first shake the ball gave. If it helps, this was after I beat Leon, so the Liepard was level 60, and was against my Level 100 Azumarill. I do not know if the EVs and IVs of the Azumarill matter, but it was EV trained and had Max IVs.

Comments

omg, what a troll Liepard

---

Yeah XD

---

How many Pokemon have you caught in the dex? That's kinda important

---

"but not Liepard." I would assume 0 then.

---

I have registered 218 Pokémon.

---

Uh 0. (Filler)

---

I'm pretty sure it means that how many have you registered of that species, that's why I said it might be 0, but if it's not, and I end up being wrong, please reshow the other number Obstagoon.

---

https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Catch_rate#Critical_capture
Chance for a critical capture increases on total number of Pokemon caught in your Pokedex.

---

I have registered 218 Pokémon in total

---

Alright, I should be able to answer. I'll ask any questions if I have em

Answer 1

You have a 9.766% chance of a critical capture, which then has a 90.538% chance of succeeding. Failing that, you have a 67.193% chance of succeeding with a normal capture. All in all, this amounts to a 69.473% chance per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 1 ball and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 3 balls.

Ok, so basically, if we ignore the chance of even getting a critical capture, the cat had a 9.462% chance of breaking out. This is the calculator I utilized :)

EDIT: The chance of you catching it with a critical capture is 8.84% I believe

Comments

Thanks! I it just seemed really rare for it to break out if a cc quick ball.

---

:) thanks

---

That's the exact calculator I tried to use, but I couldn't find the critical capture button.

---

Oh there isn't a button, you just have to read the analysis. It tells you the chance of getting the thing. :)

---

That's wierd, I didn't see that, ah well, thanks.

---

Basically, you had to put in the number of Pokemon that they've caught. That'll automatically do all ze mafs.

---

Cool, that must have been what I was missing, when I went through, I put 0 because I thought it meant of the species, not in total.

---

Lol (filler)