What are the chances of this happening?

Question

I was doing the masuda method for a shiny froakie, and I hatched a shiny on egg 25. It was HA and female, and the father passed down the ball (a dive ball). What are the chances of this occurring? (I have shiny charm)

Comments

Was the female HA

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Did you not read correctly? It was shiny, female, AND HA.

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No i thought he was breeding two froakie and the female was HA

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Both parents were HA

Answer 1

I might be completely wrong (I haven’t done math for months lol) but I THINK the way to calculate it is:

1/512= chance of shiny with charm and Masuda Method.

6/10= chance of HA.

1/8= chance of being female.

1/2= chance of father passing down ball.

I might be wrong, but so think you multiply all these numbers together to get roughly 1/13,653, or about 0.007%, or seven out of 100,000, approximately. Like I said, I haven’t done actual math since schools closed but I think I’m right. Can I have some of your amazing luck, please? :)

Comments

Of course, you COULD say the odds of it happening were 100% since it DID happen, but that just makes my brain hurt...

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Cool. Thanks!

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No problem!

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How did you get to 13.653

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Well, if you multiply all the factors I listed you get 6/81920, which can be simplified to 3/40960. 3 goes into 40960 13,653.33333333333 times, so I rounded.