PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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For those unaware, Shiny Leaf is an item your Pokemon can be holding when you speak to it in the overworld in HG/SS. You must collect them to get one of the trainer card stars.

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One Pokemon may only find one shiny leaf per route. you will find shiny leafs in corrispondance to the leading Pokemon's nature check out this page for which natures go with which routes http://www.serebii.net/heartgoldsoulsilver/shinyleaf.shtml
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Gen 4 speedrunner Werster estimates that the chance is 5%.

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I'll accept an estimation from Werster.